BACKGROUND Vector transmission of
Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing
incidence of Chagas’ disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem.
OBJECTIVE To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and
correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate change.
METHODS Potential distribution models of
Triatoma infestans
and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machinelearning
method.
FINDINGS Climate change appears to play a major role in the reemergence of Chagas’ disease and
T. infestans in Chile. The
distribution of both
T. infestans and Chagas’ disease correlated with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the
driest month. The overlap of Chagas’ disease and
T. infestans distribution areas was high. The distribution of
T. infestans, under
two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in suitable areas.
MAIN CONCLUSION The impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of
T. infestans, as shown by the models,
indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current control measures, including
T. infestanscontrol campaigns, should be
maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings.
