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African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development
Rural Outreach Program
ISSN: 1684-5358 EISSN: 1684-5358
Vol. 19, No. 3, 2019, pp. 14587-14601
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Bioline Code: nd19045
Full paper language: English
Document type: Research Article
Document available free of charge
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African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development, Vol. 19, No. 3, 2019, pp. 14587-14601
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THE RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF CEREAL PRODUCTION, IMPORTS, AND AID TO SOMALI FOOD SECURITY
Gavin, R; Haji, H & Porter, P
Abstract
Somalia is among the poorest countries on the planet. Since the fall of Siad Barre’s
regime in 1991, the country has been in a near-constant state of food insecurity and
suffered two officially declared famines. In order to address the issue of food insecurity
in Somalia, a greater understanding of each of the components that contribute to the
Somali food supply is merited. Cereal crops make up a third to half of the Somali diet
by calories and are among the most important food crops produced by the country. This
study investigated the historic trends in domestic cereal production, cereal imports, and
food aid (reported in cereal equivalents) in Somalia by exploring secondary data publicly
available from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, and
the World Food Programme. These data were related to World Bank population data in
Microsoft Excel and average per capita production, import, and aid figures were
calculated. Median changes over time and their associated interquartile ranges were
reported. The data demonstrated that Somali cereal production levels have not improved
since the 1960’s, and since that time, they have been characterized by an extreme amount
of year-to-year volatility. Moreover, maize and sorghum are the only meaningful
fractions of Somalia’s domestic cereal production, and recent total production of each
crop is well below the levels observed in the 1980’s. When combined, per capita
production of maize and sorghum has decreased precipitously over time (falling from a
high of 91 kg per capita in 1972 to just 30 kg per capita in 2012). This is likely due to a
combination of stagnant production and rapidly increasing Somali population (up over
350% since 1961). This has increased the importance of cereal imports and aid to
Somalia and has made the country vulnerable to disruptions in international cereal
markets and foreign government policies. Improving domestic cereal production in
Somalia should be part of any future food security strategy for the country. Recent
agricultural research in Somalia suggests that the implementation of simple agricultural
best management practices can increase cereal production in the country.
Keywords
Somalia; Population Growth; Cereal Production; Cereal Imports; Food Aid
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